So much for “search Bedminster!”
Ever since the DOJ had the FBI carry out a search and seizure operation at Donald Trump’s primary home of Mar-a-Lago, there have been calls for the DOJ to do the same at Trump’s secondary residence in Bedminster, New Jersey. And all along I’ve pointed out that things aren’t as simplistic as that. Jack Smith isn’t too naive to realize that Trump has a secondary residence. He surely pursued the Bedminster angle a long time ago. He either determined it was important and saw it through without the public noticing, or he determined it was a dead end.
This week it was reported that Jack Smith had long ago obtained a recording of Trump having a conversation about an Iran-related classified document at Bedminster. Smith appears to have learned about the existence of this recording by way of the two people who ghostwrote Mark Meadows’ autobiography, which then led him to a low level Trump aide who was present for the meeting.
This is a good reminder of how these kinds of probes actually work. Smith cast a wide net and interviewed every “friendly” witness who was anywhere near Trump, regardless of how tangential. Then he took the information he learned from these cooperators, and used it to pin down potentially reluctant witnesses closer to Trump. And that ultimately led Smith to a smoking gun recording that not only captures Trump committing espionage, but also wipes out all of the reasonable doubt arguments Trump might try to use at trial.
It’s extremely important to point out that this recording – which appears to have been in the hands of two ghostwriters who probably didn’t even know the importance of what they were sitting on – would not have been discovered by having the FBI search Bedminster. If Jack Smith had followed the simplistic advice of all the people on social media who have been yelling “search Bedminster!” he’d have come up with nothing. Fortunately, Smith is a lot better at this kind of thing than people on social media are.
This all brings us to today’s new reporting. It turns out Jack Smith issued a subpoena about three months ago for the Iran-related document that he’d caught Trump discussing in the recording – and Trump’s legal team responded that they were unable to find the document.
This is of course leading to a whole new round of social media posts about how Jack Smith needs to “search Bedminster!” But here’s the thing. This recording gave Smith way more evidence than he would have needed to obtain a search warrant for Bedminster. So if Smith felt there were anything to be gained by searching Bedminster, he’d have had the FBI do it months ago. In fact it’s entirely possible that he did have the FBI search Bedminster months ago. Remember, the public only learned about the Mar-a-Lago search because Trump’s people tipped off the media while it was happening. There is every reason to believe that the FBI could have theoretically already searched Bedminster without the public knowing about it.
But let’s take a step back here. As I said at the top, “search Bedminster” is just a simplistic social media chant, and not a valid investigative strategy. Even if you think a piece of paper is hidden somewhere on a large property, simply raiding the place has a small chance of uncovering it. Smart investigators would secretly cultivate low level cooperators who work at the property, in order to pin down precisely where the documents were being hidden, before going in – which is precisely what the DOJ did before going into Mar-a-Lago.
At this point it’s nearly a given that the DOJ also cultivated cooperators inside Bedminster, in order to try to track down where (if anywhere) this Iran document might be hiding on the property. Remember, you don’t accomplish this just by busting down the door and yelling “Surprise!” This isn’t the movies. You accomplish this by using smart investigative techniques to locate the document before you even go through the door. This isn’t my take on how it should be done; it’s how it is done. We saw the DOJ do it this way with Mar-a-Lago. The DOJ has surely taken the same approach with Bedminster.
The only part we don’t have any clue about is what this approach yielded with regard to Bedminster. What did Jack Smith learn from the inside of Bedminster before subpoenaing this Iran-related classified document? Did Smith already know where the document was? Did he issue the subpoena specifically to catch Trump in another act of obstruction of justice, as Trump raced down the hall to try to move the document? Had the DOJ already covertly obtained the document before the subpoena? Did the DOJ quietly send in the FBI to seize the document after the subpoena? Does the DOJ have the document now?
These are all questions we don’t know the answer to. But Jack Smith does know these answers. This is his probe. He knows what he’s already done, even if we don’t. It’s also probably worth pointing out that today’s new reporting, from CNN, is mostly written from the Trump team’s point of view. This suggests that someone on Trump’s team is the source. And since the revelations are pretty damning, it suggests that someone (currently or formerly) on Trump’s team is now giving this information to the media in an attempt at insulating himself or herself from the ugliness of what’s coming.
It’s also further worth keeping in mind that even Trump’s team would only know a fraction of what’s been going on in this probe. So today’s new reporting can still only be considered a partial accounting of what all has taken place with regard to this Iran-related classified document. But again, Jack Smith knows what all has occurred in his own probe. Of all the questions I’ve posed above, none of the answers are a mystery to him.
So now we wait just a bit longer for Trump to be indicted for espionage – at this point perhaps mere days not weeks – and we watch as the whole thing just keeps getting uglier for Trump. One more thing. If Jack Smith never was able to obtain the Iran document, and he concluded that Trump must have given it away or sold it, he would have then instructed the intel community to track it down through clandestine means. Trump’s rabbit hole on this could run really deep. But every path through down rabbit hole comes out the other side to the same conclusion: Trump is about to be criminally indicted for espionage involving classified state secrets. He’s not bouncing back from that.
