Here’s when you’ll know it’s all over for Donald Trump
Donald Trump’s arrest in Manhattan for thirty-four felonies is a serious blow to his future. It’ll make at least some wavering Republican primary voters start to wonder about his availability before primary voting even begins. And it’ll put him in prison eventually.
But the more serious criminal charges elsewhere are what will finish him off for good. We’re still waiting to see how serious the charges will be in Fulton County – where media reports have said that the DA is considering RICO charges – and when those charges will drop. At this point the home stretch of the Fulton County case is seemingly being carried out in such secrecy behind the scenes, it could be a matter of us all waking up one day this month to the news out of nowhere that Trump has been indicted.
Still, it’s the federal criminal case against Trump that’s going to be such a crushing blow that it could knock him out of the race long before the trial even begins. More specifically, we should say the two federal criminal cases against Trump, both being overseen by Special Counsel Jack Smith, one related to January 6th and the other related to classified documents.
In these twin cases, Trump could end up criminally indicted on charges including everything from incitement, to insurrection, to election fraud, to obstruction of justice, to the Espionage Act. When it comes to this stuff, Trump may not even get bail. Even if he does, he could find himself gag ordered very quickly. And it’s a lot more difficult to stall a federal trial than a state trial. So even if the DOJ ends up being the last of Trump’s three indictments, it could still end up being his first trial – meaning it could be the first one to convict him and put him in prison.
That means we all want to know when Jack Smith is going to criminally indict Trump. The short answer is that he needs all of his witnesses to testify to the grand jury first, and then he’ll indict Trump. To that end, earlier this week the courts finally cleared the way for Trump White House officials like Mark Meadows to be forced to testify to the grand jury, and the DOJ reportedly began putting some of those folks in front of the grand jury earlier this week.
Then Mike Pence announced that he’s not appealing the court ruling that he must testify, making it a lot harder for Trump to buy any time by appealing it without Pence’s participation. This means Pence will end up testifying soon. Could be weeks, could be days.
So what are we watching for? Simply put, news that people like Pence and Meadows have testified to the grand jury. If we see it reported that those two names have testified, then Trump is as good as indicted, because they’re the final pieces of the puzzle.
Of course it’s very possible that these folks will testify to the grand jury without any of us even knowing it. These things are secret by default, and only become public in real time if the witness tells the media about it, or if staked out reporters happen to see these folks entering the courthouse for their testimony.
So it’s entirely possible that we won’t get any reporting about Pence and Meadows when they do testify, and that the news of DOJ’s Trump indictment is simply something we’ll wake up to out of nowhere one day soon. But in the meantime, if you’re looking for a sign that it’s indeed all over for Trump, keep an eye out for news that Pence and Meadows have testified.
