Kyrsten Sinema is toast

| 9:09 pm EST February 23, 2023
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When Kyrsten Sinema changed her party affiliation from Democratic to Independent but kept caucusing with the Democrats in the Senate, two things became clear. First, she knew that her aloof and often openly corrupt behavior had turned Democratic voters so thoroughly against her, she’d never survive a 2024 primary challenge. Second, she was hoping that the Democrats would be too afraid to run an actual Democratic candidate against in her in the general election in 2024, for fear of handing the seat to the Republicans in the process.

When House Democrat Ruben Gallego announced weeks ago that he was entering the 2024 Senate race in Arizona, it led to a whole new round of doom and gloom from the usual suspects on social media. They predicted that Gallego and Sinema would merely split the Democratic vote, thus handing the victory to the Republican candidate. But new polling shows something very different.

A new poll from OH Predictive Insights has Ruben Gallego winning a three-way Senate race by anywhere from five to eight points, depending on the Republican candidate. That same poll also shows Gallego winning a two-way race (without Sinema in the race) by four to ten points, depending on the Republican candidate. In other words, Gallego is the 2024 frontrunner whether Sinema ends up running or not. The kicker is that in every three-way poll conducted with various names inserted as the Republican nominee, Sinema actually finished in third place every time.

This comes after another poll earlier this month also showed a similar result, with Gallego the frontrunner, and Sinema finishing third behind the Republican. The election is more than a year and a half from now, and things can certainly change. But the current numbers suggest that Sinema’s career is over already. For an incumbent Senator to be polling in third place is nothing short of stunning. She’s just that unpopular in Arizona, with voters across the spectrum.

That said, just because Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego is leading in the polls, nothing can be taken for granted. The above polling shows Gallego winning by as little as four points – and the stated margin of error is three points. That’s not enough of a lead to rely on. Even though Sinema is toast, this race will likely be a toss up between the Democrats and Republicans. That’s why it’s crucial that we all get behind Gallego’s 2024 campaign starting now. You can sign up to volunteer or donate here.