Democrat wins special election for U.S. House seat

| 8:46 pm EST February 21, 2023
Dear Palmer Report readers, we all understand the difficult era we're heading into. Major media outlets are caving to Trump already. Even the internet itself and publishing platforms may be at risk. But Palmer Report is nonetheless going to lead the fight. We're funding our 2025 operating expenses now, so we can keep publishing no matter what happens. I'm asking you to contribute if you can, because the stakes are just so high. You can donate here.

When House Democrat Don McEachin passed away in November, it set up a special election in his district. That district is heavily Democratic, meaning it wasn’t a particularly competitive race, and thus it didn’t get much national media attention. But that special election nonetheless took place today, and Democratic candidate Jennifer McClellan has won. This is important for a few reasons.

First, McClellan’s win is historic, as she’s the first Black woman to ever represent Virginia in Congress. Second, she’s fantastic. You’re going to like her. Third, House Democrats have been one vote short since the start of the term, and this now shores up that math.

Of course winning today’s special election was the easy part, so to speak. This House district is rated D+16 by Cook Political Report, meaning the Democratic candidate was always extremely likely to win by a large margin. As of right now, with 86% of the vote counted, McClellan is a whopping 45 points ahead of her Republican opponent. That margin may become more narrow by the time all the votes are counted, but it’s obviously going to be a blowout. That’s because these kinds of “safe” districts are never in play.

It’ll be a very different kind of story if, for instance, George Santos is forced out of office before the end of his term. He’s in a D+2 House district, which means it’s a highly competitive landscape that either party could typically win. While the Democrats would be favored in such a special election due to the badwill that Santos has created for his party, political activists like you would still need to put in the work for the Democratic candidate in that race if you want to ensure a win.

Of course this is all serving as a primer for the 2024 election. There will be 435 House races, but about 350 of them will be in districts that lean way too Democratic or Republican to be competitive. Another fifty House races will only be marginally competitive. And the House majority will mainly come down to the couple dozen races that are in the “toss up” category. If we want to win the House majority in 2024, we have to focus on those specific districts. It was true in 2022, and it’ll be just as true in 2024.

In the meantime, be sure to say hello to new House Democrat Jennifer McClellan. She’s going to do a fantastic job. And now the focus moves to 2024, or whatever special elections might drop into our lap before then.