There are four ways this can end for George Santos – and all of them are ugly

Even as the George Santos scandal continues to get uglier, and he finds himself under federal and local criminal investigation, he still insists he’s going to go through with the process of being sworn in to Congress next week.

It’s important to understand that things like being under criminal investigation, being indicted, being convicted, and even going to prison, do not cause someone to magically be removed from Congress. It feels like that should be a thing, but it’s not how the rules of Congress are set up. In reality there are only four ways George Santos could end up exiting Congress, and it’s important that we keep them in mind going forward:

1) Santos resigns in the hope the media will stop digging into him and prosecutors will deprioritize their probes into him. This would have been a smart move for Santos to have made weeks ago. But at this late date he might not gain much by belatedly using this strategy.

2) The Santos scandal continues to get uglier for House Republicans as we get into 2023, and at some point they eventually decide they want him out, so they privately tell him he has to resign or he’ll be expelled, and he has no choice but to resign. But this would require House Republicans to have any sense, or any gumption, or any leadership, or any clue – and they have none of those.

3) Santos sticks to his guns even as he’s indicted, convicted, and hauled off to a cell, and eventually House Republicans expel him because he can’t vote with the majority while he’s behind bars.

4) If Santos doesn’t end up indicted, he’ll still lose his seat in the 2024 election. If he seeks reelection he’ll likely lose a primary challenge, and he’d definitely lose a general election.

Santos promptly resigning might be the best case scenario for House Republicans, because he’d be making a problem go away that they lack the guts to make go away. It would likely cost them a seat. But if they can’t make their fragile majority work with a four seat majority, they’re not going to be able to make it work with a five seat majority either.

Santos trying to remain in the House for as long as possible might be the best case for House Democrats, because his scandals will keep distracting from whatever messaging House Republicans are trying to push on any given day.

But again, it’s not up to House Democrats. They obviously don’t have a two-thirds majority, and therefore can’t expel George Santos. It’s up to House Republicans to pick their poison of either losing a seat or losing their ability for their messaging to get across. All that the House Democrats can do is push Santos to the forefront, make him the poster child for a Republican Party gone awry, and use him as a weapon against all the other House Republicans until he finds his way out of Congress.