The tide is officially turning

Washington Post says Democrats now have a “narrow path to keeping the House.” One of FiveThirtyEight’s three election models now says Republicans are only “slightly” favored to win the House. Cook Political Report now says Republicans winning the House is “no longer a foregone conclusion.”

The tide is clearly turning. In fact I suspect these latest headlines are lagging indicators, not leading indicators. The reason I say this is that these projections are essentially based on if the election were held today. They’re being made on the presumption that, for all the seismic shifts we’ve seen thus far in the 2022 election cycle, there will be no further such shifts. Given how much momentum the Democrats now have, and how the Republicans seem to keep finding themselves in a deeper hole, there’s reason to expect that the House race could shift further incrementally in the Democrats’ favor.

All that said, as of today, the Democrats are still underdogs to keep the House. Their ongoing momentum will likely only be just enough to shift things into tight contention by election day. That means that – as is always the case with elections that come down to the wire – the 2022 House midterms will hinge on which side’s activists want it the most badly and put in the most work. Here are the competitive House races we’re focused on winning. They’re in three categories:

“Toss-up” means the race is on track to be decided by perhaps one point or less. These are the races where we can make the most difference, with even a small effort.

“Lean-R” means that if the election were held today, the Republican would be expected to win by a few points. With the political headwinds continuing to shift in the Democrats’ favor, we expect many of these “Lean-R” races to look more like toss-ups by November, so it’s important to get involved in them now.

“Lean-D” means that if the election were held today, the Democrat would be expected to win by a few points. These are races that we perhaps don’t have to worry about as much as the Toss-up and Lean-R races, but we’ve included the Lean-D races because the Republicans are trying to pick off the Lean-D seats.

So what can you do? If you have money, donate to these races. Many of them are lower profile, so even a small donation can make a big difference. If you have time, sign up to volunteer. They’re labeled by district, so you can pick the ones that are within driving distance. If you don’t live near any of these races, you can volunteer online from home. If you don’t have time or money to spare, you can help by sharing these candidate links on your Facebook and Twitter pages, so your followers with time or money will see it and contribute:

Toss-up races

Gabe Vasquez, NM-02 (New Mexico): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Greg Landsman OH-1 (Ohio): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Adam Gray CA-13 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Eric Sorensen IL-17 (Illinois): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Frank Mrvan IN-01 (Indiana): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Jared Golden ME-02 (Maine): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Dan Kildee MI-08 (Michigan): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Emilia Sykes OH-13 (Ohio): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Jamie McLeod-Skinner OR-05 (Oregon): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Matt Cartwright PA-08 (Pennsylvania): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Tony Vargas NE-02 (Nebraska): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Elaine Luria VA-02 (Virginia) Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Kim Schrier WA-08 (Washington): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Yadira Caraveo CO-08 (Colorado): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Wiley Nickel NC-13 (North Carolina): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Sharice Davids KS-03 (Kansas): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Elissa Slotkin MI-07 (Michigan): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Abigail Spanberger VA-07 (Virginia): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Angie Craig MN-02 (Minnesota): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Chris Pappas NH-01 (New Hampshire): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Dina Titus NV-01 (Nevada): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Susie Lee NV-03 (Nevada): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Steven Horsford NV-04 (Nevada): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Marcy Kaptur OH-09 (Ohio): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Christy Smith CA-27: Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Rudy Salas CA-22 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Chris Deluzio PA-17 (Pennsylvania): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Josh Riley NY-19 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Robert Zimmerman NY-03 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Francis Conole NY-22 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

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Lean-R races

Michelle Vallejo TX-15 (Texas): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Bridget Fleming NY-01 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Susan Wild PA-07 (Pennsylvania): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Brad Pfaff WI-03 (Wisconsin): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez WA-03 (Washington): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Jevin Hodge AZ-01 (Arizona): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Kirsten Engel AZ-06 (Arizona): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Will Rollins CA-41 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Jay Chen CA-45 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Cindy Axne IA-03 (Iowa): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Tom Malinowski NJ-07 (New Jersey): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

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Lean-D races

Nikki Budzinski IL-13 (Illinois): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Katie Porter CA-47 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Don Davis NC-01 (North Carolina): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Mike Levin CA-49 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Greg Stanton AZ-04 (Arizona): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Hillary Scholten MI-03 (Michigan): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Josh Harder CA-09 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Jahana Hayes CT-05 (Connecticut): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Sean Casten IL-06 (Illinois): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

David Trone MD-06 (Maryland): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Sean Patrick Maloney NY-17 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Pat Ryan NY-18 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

Annie Kuster NH-02 (New Hampshire): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter

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About this list: The “volunteer” links are the volunteer page provided by the candidate’s official website. The “donate” links lead directly to the ActBlue donation page that the candidate has designated on his or her official website, meaning the money goes directly to the candidate. The Toss-up, Lean-R, and Lean-D rankings primarily come from Cook Political Report, which has had a strong track record with such predictions. The order of the candidates is random with each category, and is changed each time the list is republished, in an attempt at promoting them evenly. Broken or incorrect links? Email us.