Fifteen seat shift!
Four months ago, conventional wisdom was that the Democrats were going to have a difficult time keeping the Senate in the midterms, and that the Democrats had no shot at keeping the House in the midterms. But then Roe happened, and the Democrats finally managed to pass their pieces of legislation, and gas prices came down, and President Biden’s approval rating began rebounding, and now we’re looking at a different midterms.
Last night’s NY-19 House special election, where the polls had the Republican ahead by 8-10 points but the Democrat ended up winning by three points, helped underscore that the gam has changed – and that it’s changed even more than pollsters and statisticians were expecting.
To give you an idea of just how fundamentally things have shifted: back in May, the respected Cook Political Report had the Republicans gaining 20-35 House seats in the midterms. But things have since shifted so dramatically, Cook now has the Republicans gaining just 10-20 House seats. And that’s simply what will happen if nothing continues shifting.
Given that the projections have seen a fifteen seat shift in the House over the past few months, there is every reason to believe that we can see another shift of that same size over the next few months. That would leave the Republicans gaining just zero to five House seats – which would allow the Democrats to keep the majority. That’s why Cook now says that the Democrats retaining control of the House is “not out of the question” and that the “red wave” is looking more like a “ripple.”
Of course mathematical projections don’t vote, and elections don’t win themselves. The Democrats are still the underdog when it comes to winning the House. And everyone knows that even when the underdog has all the momentum and the other side is reeling, the underdog still has to put in more hard work and effort than the other side.
One of the reasons Democratic candidate Pat Ryan narrowly won the special election, as opposed to narrowly losing it, is that so many you were willing to donate and volunteer – even if you don’t live anywhere near NY-19. You chipped in small amounts. You volunteered remotely online. You spread the word about the campaign, even if you had no time or money to give. And you should feel damn good about the fact that your guy narrowly won. Now you can help win the entire House, by supporting these Democratic candidates running in the most highly competitive midterm House races:
Hillary Scholten • Josh Harder • Jahana Hayes • Sean Casten • David Trone • Christy Smith • Rudy Salas • Chris Deluzio • Gabe Vasquez • Greg Landsman • Michelle Vallejo • Adam Gray • Eric Sorensen • Frank Mrvan • Jared Golden • Dan Kildee • Emilia Sykes • Jamie McLeod-Skinner • Matt Cartwright • Bridget Fleming • Susan Wild • Nikki Budzinski • Katie Porter • Don Davis • Tony Vargas • Brad Pfaff • Marie Gluesenkamp Perez • Elaine Luria • Kim Schrier • Yadira Caraveo • Wiley Nickel • Jevin Hodge • Kirsten Engel • Will Rollins • Jay Chen • Sharice Davids • Elissa Slotkin • Abigail Spanberger • Mike Levin • Greg Stanton • Angie Craig • Chris Pappas • Annie Kuster • Dina Titus • Susie Lee • Steven Horsford • Marcy Kaptur • Cindy Axne • Carl Marlinga • Tom Malinowski • Josh Riley • Sean Patrick Maloney • Robert Zimmerman • Francis Conole • Pat Ryan
