The only real question when it comes down to whether the DOJ will criminally charge Donald Trump
If you ask anyone who’s previously worked in the Department of Justice, they’ll tell you that the DOJ typically only brings federal criminal charges when it thinks the odds of conviction are 90% or higher. If the percentage isn’t yet that high, the DOJ’s philosophy is that it needs to keep digging and build a stronger case before bringing charges. So the DOJ will presumably only charge Trump if it can flip one of his top people – such as Mark Meadows, Steve Bannon, Roger Stone, or Rudy Giuliani – against him. All four appear to be under current DOJ investigation.
Steve Bannon has been indicted and arrested for contempt, is on bail while awaiting trial (though many defeatists have since convinced themselves none of this happened). The text of Bannon contempt indictment suggests DOJ has been building a much broader criminal case against him.
Roger Stone’s Oath Keeper driver just cut a cooperating plea deal days ago on seditious conspiracy, making fairly clear that Stone is going to end up on the hook for the same charges.
The DOJ raided Rudy Giuliani’s home, and then had a very long court battle over attorney-client privilege, which was recently resolved and mostly went the DOJ’s way. So Giuliani will obviously end up indicted.
Meadows is the big question mark. DOJ has had his contempt referral for three months, yet the 1/6 committee hasn’t publicly complained about it – suggesting there’s more going on. Is there a much bigger DOJ case against Meadows? Has Meadows already flipped? No way to know yet.
In any case it’s clear that the DOJ is actively pursuing criminal cases against multiple top Trump people, and has been for some time, with varying degrees of progress. If and when the DOJ gets one or more of them to flip, then decisions about charging Trump could be made.
In the meantime, there’s no way anyone outside the DOJ could possibly “know” that the DOJ has decided not to charge Trump. Legal pundits making this assertion are just making up doomsday hysteria for attention and should be ignored accordingly.
