This is devastating for Donald Trump
After three and a half years of listening to a “president” who speaks like a toddler, it was refreshing to hear President Obama speak to the class of 2020. While he mentioned no names, much of President Obama’s speech was directed at Donald Trump and his continued failures. His reference to the pandemic tearing back the curtain on “the folks in charge” harkens to the Wizard of Oz when that curtain pulled back to reveal a fraud. Trump is little more than a fictional character, except this character is doing real harm. Americans need to band together to get Trump out of office before he does further damage, and according to CNN, it appears this may be happening.
CNN’s “poll of the week” is a new Marquette Law School poll and shows Joe Biden up by three points in Wisconsin. Before you say those numbers are within the margin of error and represents only one state, CNN analyzes polls a bit differently. CNN judges poll accuracy by looking at state-level polls. By including state polls, CNN estimates that Biden is six points ahead of Hillary Clinton’s final margin. Further, CNN believes that Biden is holding an eight-point lead over Trump nationwide. CNN looked at the national polling averages taken during this same period, and Biden is up higher than in those polls, which includes Trump’s favorite poll, Rasmussen. Biden is solidly in the lead.
CNN takes poll review to the next level with this method. Harry Enten, the author of the article, believes that with more data points to review, we get a more accurate reading on the numbers. They are looking at more than 20 polls and 15,000 plus interviews, which results in a smaller margin of error. Enten also reviewed states that he believes will be most competitive, as well as the ones he thinks will not be close. In his review of competitive states, Enten reported that Biden is on average 6 points above Clinton’s 2016 final numbers, and the same is true in non-competitive states. Neither Trump nor Biden is running away with states seen as friendly, but Biden has posted leads of five points or better in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
To further prove his point, Enten looked at erroneous polling data in 2016, which underestimated Trump’s numbers. Biden would still be ahead, even if Trump’s numbers were once again being underestimated. For example, RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight both underestimated Trump’s numbers in 2016 by one and two points, respectively. When those errors are recreated in current polling, Biden maintains a six to seven-point lead. While Trump still statistically has time to catch up, he is his own worst enemy. Between his mishandling of coronavirus and his ludicrous call to investigate President Obama, he will continue to drop in the polls. The bottom line is that if the race were held today, Biden is ahead in enough states to win 270 electoral votes. We need to do our best to make this reality. After all we have survived at Trump’s hands, it will be nice to have a real president in the White House again.
Shirley is a former entertainment writer and has worked in the legal field for over 25 years