Donald Trump just got his ass kicked

| 9:09 am EST January 31, 2020
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From the day Donald Trump’s impeachment started, we all knew that the Republican Senate would almost certainly end up acquitting him. We knew the trial would be a joke. We also knew that part didn’t matter. The important part was to impeach him for his crimes, and to use the process to educate voters. The only measuring stick of our success was going to be what Trump’s numbers looked like once it was over.

Trump entered impeachment with an approval rating of just over 40%, which currently gives him right around zero chance in the 2020 election. If Trump wants to win, or to even come close enough to be able to put himself over the top with cheating, he’ll have to drive his approval rating at least five points higher between now and November.

Last night the Republican Senate picked its poison by deciding not to let John Bolton testify during the impeachment trial. Who cares, really? They were going to acquit Trump anyway. The only reason to root for Bolton’s testimony was that it would educate the public about Trump’s crimes, and thus drive Trump’s 2020 odds even lower. Well guess what? Bolton has a new book to promote. He’s going to do television, whether he testifies in a House hearing, or goes on a Sunday morning talk show. And no, Trump can’t magically block Bolton’s book from being released, or even delay it. That’s simply not a thing, no matter how much Trump’s lawyers stomp their feet.

Donald Trump had an opportunity to use the big stage of his impeachment trial to win over additional supporters and drive his approval rating incrementally higher. Instead he pandered to his base, which isn’t even close to being large enough to put him over the top in 2020. Trump is coming out of impeachment with the same non-competitive approval rating that he started it with. He needed a win and instead he got nothing out of it. Therefore, Trump just got his ass kicked. That’s the only realistic conclusion here. Anything else is just noise.