Massive first day early voter turnout in Texas – and it’s good news for Beto O’Rourke

| 9:52 pm EDT October 22, 2018
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Historically speaking, when upstart American political candidates have brought out huge rally crowds, some of them have had difficulty translating that enthusiasm into actual votes. One need look no further than the 1940 presidential election, in which Wendell Willkie drew massive rallies, only to lose to Franklin Roosevelt by five million votes. But when it comes to Beto O’Rourke, it may be a different story – particularly after what we saw today.

People lined up around the block in Texas today for the first day of early voting, in numbers not previously seen. It’s maddeningly difficult to try to figure out which early voters are voting for whom, but in general terms, larger turnout tends to be good news for the Democrats. One number in particular out of Texas suggests that this is very good news for Beto O’Rourke.

Back in 2016, the Texas Tribune reported that Harris County, which contains the city of Houston, had finally turned “undeniably blue.” In other words, if Beto is going to pull off the win, he’s going to do it in places like Harris County. That brings us to today, when early voter turnout in Harris County was two and a half times what it was the last time midterm elections took place.

So not only is voter turnout far higher than usual in Texas thus far, it’s also particularly high in a Democratic leaning stronghold. For reference, roughly one-seventh of Texas’ entire population lives in Harris County. The polls may still favor Ted Cruz in this race, but the only voters who count are the ones who actually show up and vote. If turnout in Texas remains strong, Beto O’Rourke may be in better shape than the polling numbers suggest.