Jeff Flake, Lisa Murkowski and Joe Manchin call for FBI investigation into Brett Kavanaugh. Here’s what happens now.

| 3:09 pm EDT September 28, 2018
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Republican Senator Jeff Flake took his flakiness to a whole new level today when he voted for Brett Kavanaugh in committee, but called for an FBI investigation into the sexual assault allegations against Kavanaugh before the full Senate vote. Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski and red state Democratic Senator Joe Manchin then joined Flake in calling for an FBI probe. Suddenly, Mitch McConnell no longer has the votes for Kavanaugh. So what happens now?

Keep in mind that Flake, Murkowski, Manchin, and Susan Collins – four people who would love it if they don’t end up having to vote on Kavanaugh one way or the other – met privately last night, according to multiple major news outlets. Whatever is going on here, they’re in on it together. They know that if there is an FBI investigation into Kavanaugh, it’s going to quickly expose some very ugly things.

For instance, the FBI would immediately seek out Kavanaugh’s friend Mark Judge. He’s been trying to avoid getting directly involved. But if he lies to the FBI he’ll go to prison for it, so there’s a good chance he’d come clean, perhaps in exchange for immunity. If the FBI probe turns ugly for Kavanaugh, Trump and McConnell would probably have to withdraw him – thus sparing the Flaky Four from having to vote “yes” or “no” on him. In fact, if McConnell informs Kavanaugh that he’s about to give in and allow an FBI investigation, it could prompt Kavanaugh to drop out, for fear it could put him on a path to prison.

McConnell has another option, which would be to simply refuse to allow an FBI investigation, and take his chances by forcing a swift full-Senate vote. But while Flake is locked into a “yes” vote for future career purposes, and Manchin is locked into a “no” vote for partisan reasons, Murkowski and Collins could go either way. McConnell knows he’ll be playing a dangerous game if he defies them on the FBI thing.