Hell hath no fury like a fixer scorned

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If you’re trying to figure out what Michael Cohen is about to do, you can look at his announcement that he’s severing his joint legal defense with Donald Trump. You can look at his resignation from the RNC in protest of Trump. You can look at his recent remarks which make clear that he’s more worried about being perceived as a traitor than about the domestic criminal charges he’s imminently facing. But if you really want to know what he’s about to do, you only have to match up two things.

The first is that, for the past couple weeks, Michael Cohen’s friends and family have been leaking to the media that Cohen has been telling them he’s going to flip. They wouldn’t be leaking this unless they wanted Cohen to flip. So we know where the people surrounding Cohen in his personal life stand. The second is that Cohen has announced he’s going to side with them.

Here’s what Michael Cohen said to Good Morning America: “My wife, my daughter and my son have my first loyalty.” That’s telling, because by all accounts, those are the people who want him to flip. He basically just announced to the whole world that he’s going to let them make that decision for him, and we know what they’re going to do. Cohen also said “I put family and country first.” This dovetails with various recent media reports that some of Cohen’s friends have been trying to sell him on the idea that he could become a national hero if he flips on Trump.

The decision about whether or not to cut a plea deal should come down to pure logic. You’re plenty familiar with your options, and the consequences of each. But in reality, plea deals — particularly when they involve selling out someone you were once loyal to — tend to come down to emotion. It very much sounds like Michael Cohen’s friends and family have convinced Cohen to cut a deal.