Major shift in SDNY personnel suggests the Michael Cohen thing really is about to happen

| 10:25 pm EDT July 3, 2018
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In the two weeks since Michael Cohen began hinting that he was planning to cut a plea deal against Donald Trump, we’ve all been looking for evidence that he’s really going to go through with it. His resignation from the RNC, which he said was in protest of Trump, was a subtle sign. His more recent decision to sever his joint legal defense with Trump was a stronger sign. But now the U.S. Attorney’s office for the Southern District of New York, which is handling the Cohen case, is making a major move that suggests the Cohen thing really is about to happen.

The SDNY prosecutor in charge of the Michael Cohen investigation has resigned in favor of taking a private sector job, according to a new report from the New York Times. This may initially sound panic-inducing to those who are hoping the SDNY will take Cohen down, and we’re sure that plenty of talking heads on cable news will indeed try to spin this development into something scary. But it’s important to understand the way these things actually work.

Let’s hypothetically say that this SDNY prosecutor had been abruptly fired, either for malfeasance, or because Donald Trump threatened her. In such case, she wouldn’t have had time to immediately find her way to a job at a prestigious private law firm, which the NY Times says is where she’s heading. Instead, this is about transition. When a software company releases a major, years-in-the-making new product, the head of that project’s development team often quietly resigns just as the product is heading to market. Some misinterpret this as a sign that something is wrong, and that the project is going to be a failure. Instead, it’s simply because the project is complete, and the person’s work is done.

When you apply this principle to today’s departure of the SDNY prosecutor in charge of the Michael Cohen investigation, the most logical conclusion is that she left because the “investigation” part is over. This means the criminal case is complete. The prosecutor was ready for a career change, but she stated on until she finished this project. Her departure tells us that Cohen’s indictment and arrest are imminent, if his plea deal isn’t imminent. Either way, it looks like the SDNY is finally ready to roll.